3-14-2011

50% chance No. 1 seed wins NCAA Tournament

The four No. 1 seeds in the 2011 NCAA Tournament (Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, Pittsburgh) have almost exactly a 50% chance to win. R.J. BELL of PREGAME.COM asks an interesting question, would you rather have the No.1′s or the rest of the tournament field?
There is over a 98% chance one of the 40 teams listed below will win (giving the last 28 teams less than a 2% chance combined).
No team that is a double digit seed has better than a 330 to 1 shot of winning tournament. Its romantic to pick low seeds to win, but its also a SUCKER bet.
How much would you win if you bet $100 bucks on each of the 40 teams listed below in the NCAA Tournament? This graphic from PREGAME.com breaks down your winnings on each team. You can also see in the third column the percentage chance each listed team has to the tournament according to the wise guys in Vegas.
Second column equals how much you win risking $100 on team.
Third column equals the percentage chance the team has to win tournament according to Las Vegas.

Ohio State	$400	14.3%
Duke	$450	13.0%
Kansas	$460	12.8%
Pittsburgh	$725	8.7%
San Diego St.	$1,600	4.2%
North Carolina	$1,700	4.0%
Texas	$2,000	3.4%
Notre Dame	$2,200	3.1%
Florida	$2,200	3.1%
Purdue	$2,200	3.1%
Kentucky	$2,500	2.8%
Syracuse	$2,500	2.8%
Louisville	$2,800	2.5%
Connecticut	$3,200	2.2%
Kansas State	$3,400	2.0%
Other Teams	$4,000	1.7%
Washington	$4,000	1.7%
BYU	$4,500	1.6%
Wisconsin	$5,100	1.4%
Arizona	$7,200	1.0%
Georgetown	$7,200	1.0%
St Johns	$7,500	0.9%
UCLA	$8,000	0.9%
Michigan State	$9,000	0.8%
West Virginia	$10,100	0.7%
Vanderbilt	$11,500	0.6%
Villanova	$12,500	0.6%
Cincinnati	$14,000	0.5%
UNLV	$15,000	0.5%
Illinois	$15,000	0.5%
Old Dominion	$16,000	0.4%
Temple	$17,500	0.4%
Xavier	$17,500	0.4%
Butler	$20,100	0.4%
Tennessee	$20,100	0.4%
Penn State	$22,500	0.3%
Texas A&M	$22,500	0.3%
Michigan	$22,500	0.3%
Florida State	$27,000	0.3%
Georgia	$30,000	0.2%
George Mason	$37,500	0.2%